Could McConnell lose his Senate seat?

Polling shows that Sen. Mitch McConnell could be in trouble this fall:

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of the Kentucky Senate race shows Democratic challenger Bruce Lunsford with a five percentage point lead over long-time Republican Senator Mitch McConnell. The poll, conducted just two days after Lunsford won the Democratic nomination, shows the challenger with 49% of the vote while McConnell earns 44%.

The Kentucky Democratic Party is energized this election cycle, especially on the heels of winning back the Louisville House seat in 2006 and the governorship in 2007. This race has the real potential to mimic the Virginia Senate race between Jim Webb and Sen. George Allen, although this may be less likely with Sen. Obama at the top of the Dem ticket. (Kentucky is full of bitter people clinging to their guns and religion and race-hatred as a way of explaining their economic situation.)

Either way, McConnell needs to take this re-election campaign seriously, and I'm not really sure if he is or not. (It's hard to know how aggressive anyone's advertising is when you don't have TV.)